Kamala Harris’ announcement that she is opting out of running for California governor fueled speculation that she could run for president again in 2028, and polls provide insight on her chances in a potential Democratic primary.

Newsweek reached out to Harris’ office for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Despite Harris’ loss to President Donald Trump in November’s presidential race, some Democrats have floated her as a potential candidate in 2028. She built up some goodwill in the party by improving Democrats’ polling position after replacing former President Joe Biden as the party’s nominee, so some believe she could be a viable candidate if she had more time to run a campaign amid a better national environment.

Others, however, say she lost a winnable race, pointing to decisions like her approach to the conflict between Israel and Hamas, refusal to break from an unpopular Biden on some issues and campaigning with Republicans like former Representative Liz Cheney. Critics also say she would likely face questions about whether she was aware of Biden’s alleged health decline while in office.

Kamala Harris Announcement: What We Know

Harris wrote in a statement Wednesday that she has “given serious thought to asking the people of California for the privilege to serve as their governor” but decided she will “not run for Governor in this election.”

Harris did not say she plans to run for president but that she would share more details about her plans in the future.

“For now, my leadership—and public service—will not be in elected office,” Harris wrote. “I look forward to getting back out and listening to the American people, helping elect Democrats across the nation who will fight fearlessly, and sharing more details in the months ahead of my own plans.”

Harris narrowly lost every swing state and the popular vote to Trump in November. She also ran for president in 2020 but struggled to gain traction in the 2020 Democratic primary.

Democratic 2028 Presidential Primary Polling: Where Kamala Harris Stands

Early polling of the primary suggests Harris would have a lead over other potential Democratic candidates if she chooses to run. She may face a competitive primary against other high-profile Democrats like California Governor Gavin Newsom and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who have taken early steps to build their national name recognition.

A McLaughlin poll released in early July showed that Harris had support from 25 percent of respondents. Newsom and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has not indicated she plans to run, each received 9 percent support, while Buttigieg received 8 percent.

That poll surveyed 1,000 general election voters from July 9 to July 14.

An Echelon Insights poll found similar results, giving Harris 26 percent of the vote, Buttigieg 11 percent, Newsom 10 percent and Ocasio-Cortez 6 percent. It surveyed 1,084 likely voters from July 10 to July 14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Not all polls show Harris with a major lead over other candidates, however.

The latest AtlasIntel poll showed Buttigieg leading with 27 percent support. Ocasio-Cortez followed with 19 percent, while 16 percent backed Newsom. In that poll, only 14 percent of respondents picked Harris. It surveyed 1,935 adults from July 13 to July 18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

A recent Emerson College poll also showed Buttigieg in the lead with 16 percent of the vote. Harris followed with 13 percent and 12 percent leaned toward Newsom. Ocasio-Cortez and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro each held 7 percent. It surveyed 1,000 registered voters on June 24 and June 25 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Harris’ chances on Polymarket jumped 3 percent following her announcement. However, the oddsmaker still shows her with only a 6 percent chance of winning the party’s primary—behind Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez, Newsom, Shapiro and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.

What People Are Saying

Representative Robert Garcia, a California Democrat, responded to her announcement on X, formerly Twitter: “Kamala Harris has served our state as Attorney General, U.S. Senator, and Vice-President. We could not be more grateful. Excited about her hitting the road and traveling the country to help us flip the House and win back Congress. Let’s go!”

Democratic strategist Michael Trujillo wrote to X: “Former Vice President Kamala Harris announcing later today she’s not running for CA Governor will make history in the number of cascading dominos this will have across CA in terms of candidates futures, lower statewide races impacted etc. Her exit is the full employment political operative Act because of the number of candidates for CA GOV that will be running for this office.”

What Happens Next

Harris did not say whether she plans to run for president. Typically, most candidates wait until after the midterms to formally announce their campaigns.