The odds of Donald Trump winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize have deteriorated over the past few weeks, which saw the president agree to send “top of the line weapons” to Ukraine as it battles the ongoing Russian invasion, according to a leading bookmaker.

Why It Matters

Trump has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize multiple times since 2018 but has yet to win. Earlier this month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had nominated Trump for the accolade.

Oleksandr Merezhko, the head of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign committee, nominated Trump for the award in 2024 but withdrew his nomination last month, telling Newsweek that he had “lost any sort of faith and belief” in Trump and his ability to secure a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv.

Trump complained on Truth Social: “No, I won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what I do, including Russia/Ukraine, and Israel/Iran, whatever those outcomes may be, but the people know, and that’s all that matters to me.”

President Barack Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009, just eight months into his presidency, in a move Donald Trump Jr. described as “affirmative action.”

What To Know

On Thursday, betting website Oddspedia gave Trump a 25 percent chance of winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, making him the second favorite, behind Russian human rights campaigner Yulia Navalnaya on 40 percent.

By contrast, on June 25, Oddspedia was offering odds of 27.8 percent on Trump winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, up from 13.3 percent on May 19 after the U.S. negotiated a ceasefire after 12 days of fighting between Israel and Iran. During the brief conflict, U.S. aircraft conducted strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with Iran firing missiles at an American base in Qatar in retaliation.

Separately, on Thursday, bookmaker Star Sports offered odds of 7/2 (22.2 percent) on Trump securing the Nobel Peace Prize, placing him behind Navalnaya on 2/1 (33.3 percent) and ahead of Russian anti-war campaigner Alexei Gorinov on 6/1 (14.3 percent) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with 10/1 (9.1 percent).

During a White House meeting on Monday with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Trump said he’d reached a deal to send “top of the line weapons” to Ukraine that would be paid for by European countries.

He also said he was “very unhappy” with Russian President Vladimir Putin and gave the Russian leader 50 days to agree to an end to the war in Ukraine or face “severe tariffs” of “about 100 percent.”

The White House also said the U.S. would target countries that buy oil from Russia with secondary sanctions unless a ceasefire deal is agreed.

Trump’s move came after his administration briefly halted weapons supplies to Ukraine at the beginning of July, which White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said was intended to “put America’s interests first,” although this decision was swiftly reversed.

What People Are Saying

Star Sports political betting analyst William Kedjanyi told Newsweek: “Earlier this month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nominated Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, and the U.S. president currently sits second in the betting for the award.

“We’ve given Trump odds of 7/2 to pick up the prize this December, with Trump showing his support for Ukraine this week by stating that the U.S. will be supplying more weapons to their fight against Russia until a ceasefire is reached.”

What Happens Next

The 2025 Nobel Prize announcement is due to take place on October 10 at the Norwegian Nobel Institute.