Map Shows Where ‘High Chance’ of Tropical Storm Forming This Week

National Hurricane Center (NHC) experts have designated a developing storm off the coast of southern Mexico in the Eastern Pacific as having a “high chance” of developing into a tropical storm within the next week.

If it develops, it will be the second tropical storm to form in the Eastern Pacific for this year’s hurricane season. Although the average first storm date is June 10, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek it’s not unusual to have one form earlier than that.

Why It Matters

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15, two weeks earlier than the Central Pacific and Atlantic hurricane seasons, which started on June 1. Each hurricane season runs through November 30.

Tropical Storm Alvin kicked off the Eastern Pacific hurricane season late last month when it formed off the coast of Mexico and brought heavy rain across the U.S. Southwest. DaSilva told Newsweek that AccuWeather expects more storms to follow a similar path, potentially adding more moisture to the Southwest monsoon season.

What To Know

According to the most recent update from the NHC, issued on Wednesday morning, the new system has an 80 percent chance of forming within the next seven days. It has a low, 10 percent chance of forming within the next 48 hours.

The current map shows the storm skirting along the Southern Coast of Mexico. It is too soon to anticipate the storm’s potential path, should it form.

Chances of tropical storm next week — A map from the National Hurricane Center shows the location of a burgeoning storm off the coast of southern Mexico.

National Hurricane Center

If a storm forms, it can still have an impact on the U.S. even if it doesn’t make direct landfall. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible, and at times, beaches can become hazardous due to rip currents.

The system, which is a broad area of low pressure, according to satellite data, has formed hundreds of miles offshore of Southern Mexico. It is currently producing disorganized rain showers and thunderstorms, the NHC update said.

AccuWeather meteorologists are anticipating 14 to 18 tropical storms and seven to 10 hurricanes for the Eastern Pacific this season. An average season produces 15 tropical storms and four hurricanes, according to AccuWeather.

Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific with 12 to 18 named storms. Of those, five to 10 will likely become hurricanes, and two to five could develop into major hurricanes.

What People Are Saying

The NHC, in an update about the possible storm: “Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.”

The NHC, in an Eastern Pacific hurricane season outlook: “NOAA’s 2025 eastern Pacific Hurricane Season outlook indicates a below-normal season is most likely (50% chance). There is a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 20% chance of an above-normal season.”