An expansive and volatile weather system is forecast to bring repeated rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms to parts of the Central and Midwestern United States this weekend, posing a “significant” flood risk to more than 20 million people, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

Why It Matters

Flash floods are among the most dangerous weather hazards, capable of washing out roads, damaging infrastructure, and causing fatalities with little warning. With several inches of rain expected to fall in a short period, the current risk extends beyond area that are typically prone to flooding.

According to the NWS Storm Prediction Center, severe thunderstorms from West to central Texas to southern Missouri could bring damaging winds and large hail on Saturday, in addition to flood-producing rains.

What To Know

The NWS has issued multiple flood watches stretching from Texas through Missouri and into parts of Illinois and Arkansas, warning that excessive rainfall could result in widespread flash flooding. The greatest concern centers on Saturday, when flood conditions are expected to peak.

The NWS’s Weather Prediction Center described the event as a “moderate” risk for excessive rainfall across parts of the Mississippi Valley, meaning flash flooding is likely, while a broader “slight” risk area covers much of the Eastern Corn Belt and southern Plains.

“There is increasing concern for numerous flash floods within the Moderate Risk area,” the NWS Weather Prediction Center stated in an advisory posted to X (formerly Twitter) on Thursday night. “Isolated significant flash floods are possible” across the broader Slight Risk region, it added, which encompasses more than 20 million people.

Meteorologists expect a cold front and a strengthening low-level jet stream to foster ideal conditions for repeated thunderstorm development across the region. Forecast models show that some areas could receive between 2 inches and 5 inches of rain, with locally higher totals nearing 7 inches, particularly in parts of Missouri and Arkansas.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center said convection is likely to redevelop late Saturday afternoon, with “supercell wind profiles” evident in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. Tornadoes and large hail more than 2 inches in size are possible.

A Flood Watch issued by the NWS Springfield office, covering much of southern Missouri and parts of southeast Kansas, warns that excessive runoff could result in “flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations” through Sunday evening.

What People Are Saying

NWS Weather Prediction Center meteorologist Scott Kleebauer told Newsweek that flash flooding threats extend further north as well, with some alerts being issued in the Great Lakes states on Friday morning.

He added that the strongest threat for thunderstorms on Friday night will be in Texas and Oklahoma.

The NWS office in Springfield, Missouri, in a flood watch: “You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.”

What Happens Next

Rainfall is expected to intensify throughout Saturday, with the heaviest totals likely late in the day and into the overnight hours. Flood Watches remain in effect through Sunday for much of the impacted region.