The White House has celebrated the recent sharp drop in gas prices across the country as a victory for the Trump administration, but American drivers are actually facing much higher prices at the pump now than they were a month or three months ago, even with the recent declines.

As of early Friday morning, the national average price of regular gasoline was $3.210 a gallon, according to AAA data, down from $3.268 a week earlier and from $3.630 a year earlier—but still up from a month earlier, when it was $3.081.

Why It Matters

Rising gas prices under much of the Biden administration were one of several factors fueling Americans’ frustration against the former president, as shown by polls run ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

Donald Trump, on the other hand, made bringing down “the cost of everything” a cornerstone of his campaign, during which he vowed to lower energy prices through deregulation and boosting domestic production. “We will frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill,” Trump said in Detroit in October. “I will cut your energy prices in half within 12 months.”

While the Trump administration is happy to take credit for falling gas prices now, his policies could actually end up slowing production altogether if the cost of crude oil continues to drop—eventually leading to higher gas prices for American drivers at the pump.

What To Know: Inflation Is Down, Thanks In Part To Lower Gas Prices

Gas prices have fallen over the past week because crude oil prices have plummeted in response to uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs.

As investors reassess the recently announced pause on tariffs and the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, oil prices continued to fall on Thursday, with WTI and Brent Crude trading at $59.47 and $62.78 respectively, down by 4.62 percent and 4.12 percent, according to Oilprice.com data.

Crude oil prices make up more than half the total cost of what drivers pay at the pump, so a drop also positively impacts gas prices, benefiting drivers.

The White House, which has proudly defended its tariff policies even as they created turmoil in the stock market and raised concern of a looming global recession, celebrated the recent gas price drops as a win for all Americans.

“Inflation is down, jobs are up, and the Golden Age of America is underway,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt wrote on X on Thursday commenting on the latest economic data.

Consumer prices rose 2.4 percent in March, according to the Labor Department, down from 2.8 percent in February, as price growth cooled down thanks to lower gas prices, airline fares, and hotel costs—as tourism to the U.S. slows down in response to Trump’s aggressive trade policy. The cost of groceries, on the other hand, rose 0.5 percent from a month earlier.

“President Donald Trump continues to undo the damage done by Joe Biden, and core inflation declined for the second month in row—great news for American families and businesses,” Leavitt said.

“President Donald Trump’s aggressive economic agenda is already dropping prices across the board, from prescription drugs to car insurance. Every day, the Trump Administration is cutting regulations and taking action to deliver on the President’s commitment to quickly lower costs for all Americans,” she added.

Gas Prices, However, Are Still Higher Than They Were When Trump Took Office

Yes, gas prices are now cheaper than they were during the last three years. But they are also up from where they were three months ago, when Trump returned to the White House.

Back in January, when Trump took office, the average nationwide gas price was $3.08 a gallon; in February, it had risen to $3.12, and in March it had settled on an average $3.10. While gas prices were lower year-over-year for each of these months, prices have risen considerably between January and April.

Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy and one of the most well-known experts in the industry, said that “so many are getting it wrong” when it comes to the recent drop in gas prices.

“While gas prices are down from a year ago, they’re actually UP for the month of March, rising from $3.08/gal to $3.21/gal,” he wrote on X. As DeHaan mentioned, gas prices in the U.S. were an average of $3.08 a gallon at the beginning of March, but ended the month at $3.21 a gallon, on average.

Newsweek contacted DeHaan for comment by email on Friday morning.

What’s Next

While gas prices are down, peak demand season is just around the corner, with summer bringing more drivers on the road and refiners switching to a more expensive blend usually causing a rise in prices at the pump that typically last through September.

But this is not a given. Should the U.S. slide into an economic downturn as a result of the Trump administration’s tariffs, as many experts have warned, demand for gas could drop, as consumers have less money to spend.

“When the economy slows, gasoline demand drops—along with demand for other refined products like diesel and jet fuel,” DeHaan told MarketWatch. “We’ve already seen some signals that the months ahead could be challenging.”