Taiwan’s largest annual war games, held to simulate responses to a possible Chinese invasion, will publicly assume a full-scale attack for the first time in 2027.

That’s the year United States officials have said Chinese President Xi Jinping aims to be capable of launching a major attack on Taiwan.

Why It Matters

Taiwan’s specification of a year suggests its military establishment now takes the threat as seriously as many in Washington, who have urged Taipei to increase defense spending further.

China has vowed to unify with Taiwan, which it considers its territory, though Beijing’s Chinese Communist Party has never ruled there. The increase in the frequency and scope of Chinese military activities around Taiwan—along with China’s weapons buildup and development of specialized platforms that could support an invasion—have further fueled tensions.

What To Know

The live-fire drill component of the Han Kuang exercise, which has been doubled to 10 days this year, will be held in July, focusing on Chinese gray-zone tactics or coercive actions that stop short of warfare.

The drills will be conducted under the assumption the PLA could move against the island in 2027.

In remarks to local media ahead of a meeting with parliamentarians, Defense Minister Wellington Koo played down the significance of 2027, saying military planners always set a target timeline of one to two years in the future to test coordination while integrating new weapons systems.

However, he said intelligence, surveillance and exchanges with allies have shown the Chinese military can transition from training to combat much faster than previously assumed.

Taiwan must prepare for the worst-case scenario and immediately take countermeasures when the first warning signs emerge, he said, according to the Liberty Times.

Chinese carried out its latest military drills near Taiwan on Monday in a show of force the U.S. labeled “brazen and irresponsible threats.” China’s Taiwan Affairs Office cited the “Taiwan independence” rhetoric by Taiwan President Lai Ching-te for the punitive action.

Xi has set 2027 as the year the PLA will have become a “modern military.”

What People Are Saying

Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Bianhua told reporters Tuesday: “The PLA’s exercise near Taiwan Island was a resolute punishment for Lai Ching-te’s constant propagation of the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist fallacy and escalation of cross-strait antagonism and confrontation…a solemn warning against external forces interfering to cause trouble, and a legitimate and necessary move to defend national sovereignty and maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait.”

What Happens Next

Lai recently committed to raising defense spending to 3 percent of Taiwan’s GDP, an increase of around 0.5 percent over last year, using a special budget allocation. Last week, Premier Cho Jung-tai dismissed “impossible” calls from some in U.S. President Donald Trump‘s circle to allocate 10 percent of the national budget to defense.

Lai’s government has been battling with the opposition-controlled legislature over his proposed budget, which has frozen and, to a lesser extent, cut funding for certain defense-related programs.