The New York Yankees are almost certainly headed to the playoffs, but they don’t have much say in who they’ll face.

Entering play on Monday, the Yankees had a 99.5% chance of making it to October, according to Fangraphs. They’ve got 13 games left, all against teams with sub-.500 records. However, they also trail the Toronto Blue Jays by four games, making it highly probable that they’ll be a wild card team.

That leaves open a host of possibilities: the Yankees playing any of three American League West teams, the arch-rival Boston Red Sox, or even the Cleveland Guardians.

One Yankees insider named what he believes is the ideal scenario for the Yankees on Monday. But if you ask Yankees fans, who have built up a surprising amount of playoff scar tissue over the last decade, many might disagree.

Chris Kirschner of The Athletic asserted that the best possible first-round playoff opponent for the Yankees would be the Houston Astros, who are a perfect 4-0 against the Bronx Bombers in the playoffs since 2015.

“If the Yankees could choose their potential opponent in a three-game series — and it is wild to think about considering their history — it would be the Astros,” Kirschner wrote.

“Since the All-Star break, the Astros rank 14th in starting rotation ERA and 18th in bullpen ERA. Josh Hader, their All-Star closer, might not be available to pitch by the start of October. … Jose Altuve has been a below-average hitter during this stretch, but Yankees fans would likely not feel relaxed with him in the batter’s box in the postseason.”

The Yankees went 3-3 against the Astros this season, with each winning a series on the other’s home field. But you can throw regular season records out the window when it comes to predicting Houston’s performance in October.

Not only is Altuve still present, but Carlos Correa returned in a trade on July 31. Both hit walk-off home runs against the Yankees in the 2019 American League Championship Series, which Houston won in six games.

Perhaps the matchups with teams deeper in starting pitching, like the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners, are scarier on paper. But can the Yankees really stare down their tormentors and finally best Houston in a playoff format?

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