Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Graham Platner’s chances of winning Maine’s Senate race have slipped following reports that his wife told a senior campaign aide he had sent sexually explicit messages to multiple women during their marriage.
Genevieve McDonald, Platner’s former political director, told Newsweek Sunday, “I can confirm the details of what has been reported.”
On May 30, Kalshi gave Platner a 97.8 percent implied chance of winning the Democratic primary. By Monday morning, that figure had fallen to 95.4 percent.
Meanwhile, on Polymarket, his odds fell from 69 percent to 64 percent over the same period.
The movement followed reports by The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal that Platner’s wife, Amy Gertner, warned campaign aides last year about sexually explicit messages he had exchanged with other women during their marriage.
Despite the decline, prediction markets continue to show Platner as the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nomination ahead of Maine’s June 9 primary.
Newsweek reached out to Platner’s campaign outside normal business hours for comment.
Why It Matters
Maine is considered one of Democrats’ strongest opportunities to flip a Republican-held Senate seat in 2026.
While markets show only limited movement in Platner’s chances of winning the Democratic primary, they suggest growing uncertainty about Democrats’ prospects in the general election against incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins.
Democratic Chances Also Move Lower
The broader Senate race saw a larger shift than the primary contest.
Kalshi gave Democrats a 63.2 percent chance of winning the seat on May 30. By Monday morning, that figure had fallen to 59.9 percent.
Polymarket also showed improving odds for Republicans over the same period.
The market moves suggest traders remain confident Platner will secure the Democratic nomination, but are less certain about Democratic prospects in November.
Platner Pushes Back on Focus on Personal Controversy
Platner’s former political director, confirmed the reporting to Newsweek.
“I can confirm the details of what has been reported and what Graham Platner’s campaign has already admitted to on the record, that he was sexting multiple women while married and that the campaign tried to assess that as an election vulnerability when his wife brought it to the campaign’s attention,” McDonald said.
Platner addressed the reports in a statement, saying he and his wife had worked through the issue and arguing voters are more concerned with health care, wages and economic issues than personal controversy.
In a video posted by the campaign, Gertner defended her husband and said the couple had addressed the matter through counseling.
“Graham and I have a great marriage,” she said.
Polls Still Show Platner Leading Collins
Recent public polling continues to show Platner ahead of Collins.
A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll conducted in May found Platner leading by 9 points, while recent surveys from Pan Atlantic Research and Emerson College each showed him holding a 7-point advantage.
The results have helped establish Platner as the Democratic front-runner after Governor Janet Mills decided not to enter the race.
Earlier Controversies Resurface
The latest scrutiny has also renewed attention on Platner’s past controversies, including criticism over a tattoo that resembled the Nazi SS Totenkopf symbol and deleted Reddit posts that attracted attention during the campaign.
Platner has previously apologized for the tattoo and said he plans to have it removed. He has also described the Reddit posts as online comments made years ago.
Of the tattoo, he previously told Newsweek: “I absolutely would not have gone through life having this on my chest if I knew that—and to insinuate that I did is disgusting. I am already planning to get this removed.”
What Happens Next
Maine’s Democratic primary is scheduled for June 9, with the general election set for November.
For now, prediction markets suggest the controversy has done little to shake Platner’s position as the likely Democratic nominee.
The more notable movement has been in perceptions of Democrats’ chances of defeating Collins in one of the party’s most closely watched Senate races.
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