New York Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads Vice President JD Vance in a new poll of hypothetical 2028 presidential election matchups.
Speculation of early positioning by potential candidates has continued, as polling since 2025 has suggested close potential contests between Vance and prominent Democrats while highlighting uncertainty within both parties.
Within the Democratic field, surveys in 2026 show former Vice President Kamala Harris leading with prospective primary voters overall in many polls, with California Governor Gavin Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez also drawing measurable support, along with former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
No candidate has formally announced their candidacy.
What To Know
According to the new poll from The Public Sentiment Institute, Ocasio-Cortez garnered support from 48.4 percent of likely voters compared to Vance’s 39.6 percent. The analysis shows that 12 percent were undecided. Newsom collected 50.8 percent versus Vance’s 38.9 percent, while 10.3 percent were undecided. Harris also beat Vance, 49.4 percent to 38.3 percent, with 12.3 percent undecided. The June poll surveyed 1,042 people and has a margin of error of 3 percent.
In another hypothetical head-to-head matchup presented in the poll, Ocasio-Cortez also defeated Secretary of State Marco Rubio, 46.8 percent to 38 percent, with 15.2 percent undecided.
But overall, in a potential Democratic primary, only 7.2 percent of respondents identifying as Democrats chose Ocasio-Cortez, with Harris winning at 29.2 percent, then Newsom at 15.2 percent and Buttigieg with 11.3 percent.
David Axelrod, former adviser to ex- President Barack Obama, asked Ocasio-Cortez last month her thoughts on a potential run for the White House in 2028. The New York lawmaker said in part that she does not want to make decisions as a lawmaker with the idea of one day becoming a senator or president weighing in the back of her mind. “My ambition is to change this country. Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer healthcare is forever. A living wage is forever, workers’ rights are forever, women’s rights, all of that, and so anyways … to a finer point to your question is that when you aren’t attached, right, when you haven’t been like fantasizing about being this or that since the time you were 7 years old, um, it is tremendously liberating.”
“I want to make decisions from a place of how are we going to change the country,” Ocasio-Cortez later said.
What Other Polls Show
A survey released by The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll last week showed that Harris had 27 percent of the hypothetical Democratic primary vote compared to Newsom’s 14 percent. Buttigieg landed 11 percent, Ocasio-Cortez had 8 percent and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear garnered 2 percent apiece. The poll also noted that 17 percent were not sure. The poll, conducted by Noble Predictive Insights, surveyed 1,013 Democrats from June 1 to June 4 and had a margin of error of 1.93 percent.
Lake Research Partners poll last month showed Harris with 26 percent, Newsom with 17 percent, Buttigieg with 16 percent, Ocasio-Cortez with 10 percent and others with single digits in round one of a ranked-choice simulation. In the final round, Harris had 52 percent compared to Newsom’s 48 percent. The poll was taken from May 6 to May 11 among 800 Democratic primary voters across the country, with a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
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